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Jim knows that when planning a project the following conditions are historically valid. It usually takes 3 months to gather specifications, get alignment amongst key stakeholders, and draft initial plan. He also knows that during the holiday season most activities shut down during Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years so project planning during this time of the year usually can elongate out planning to 5 months. If we start gathering specifications early enough before Halloween, we can typically cut our 5 month timeframe down to 4 months. Using 3 point estimating technique which of the answers below is the most likely duration when planning a project at the end of the year?
5.5 months
4 months
3.75 months
3 months
The formula is as follows: Expected =(O+4M+P)/6. 4 Months is correct as (3+(4*4)+5)/6 = 4 months.
(PMBOK 2013 Rev 5th Edition, pgs 170-171). If you make the assumption that you are planning during the Holiday time frame, otherwise the data is extraneous.
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